Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Union Magdalena and 1.25 for Real Cartagena, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Real Cartagena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Magdalena home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Cartagena away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Union Magdalena win32%

Draw28%

Real Cartagena win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.9%
1–010.5%
0–09.5%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Union Magdalena

2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 1-1 (D)

Real Cartagena

2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T01:20:00.000Z · H vs Popayan · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-12T21:00:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 3-0 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2026-05-09T00:30:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 1-2 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2026-03-23T01:30:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 1-2 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2024-08-25T23:00:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 0-2 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2024-03-11T23:00:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 2-2 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2021-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 1-0 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2021-02-15T23:00:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 2-1 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2020-03-08T20:30:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 2-0 Real Cartagena (Primera B)
2019-04-24T20:30:00.000Z · Union Magdalena 0-0 Real Cartagena (Copa Colombia)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Envigado	38	17	13	8	18	64
2	Quindio	36	18	10	8	12	64
3	Real Cartagena	38	16	13	9	17	61
4	Union Magdalena	36	17	10	9	16	61
5	Internacional Palmira	36	17	10	9	10	61
6	Tigres FC	36	12	12	12	4	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	30	12	11	7	10	47
8	Bogota FC	36	10	14	12	-6	44
9	Real Cundinamarca	30	10	11	9	4	41
10	Barranquilla	36	10	10	16	-4	40
11	Patriotas	30	9	8	13	-10	35
12	Popayan	30	8	10	12	-5	34
13	Orsomarso	30	8	10	12	-7	34
14	Depor FC	30	6	9	15	-16	27
15	Real Santander	30	5	12	13	-17	27
16	Leones FC	30	5	9	16	-26	24
1	Internacional Palmira	15	12	2	1	16	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	12	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	10	29
5	Real Cartagena	15	7	5	3	8	26
6	Bogota FC	15	6	5	4	2	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	1	20
8	Tigres FC	15	5	5	5	1	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	-1	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Popayan	15	2	7	6	-5	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Leones FC	15	2	4	9	-16	10
15	Depor FC	15	1	6	8	-11	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	-14	7
1	Envigado	6	3	2	1	3	11
1	Real Cartagena	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Quindio	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Union Magdalena	6	2	3	1	4	9
3	Internacional Palmira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Barranquilla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
4	Tigres FC	6	1	1	4	-4	4
4	Bogota FC	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Ind. Yumbo	15	8	4	3	11	28
2	Real Cundinamarca	15	8	4	3	9	28
3	Tigres FC	15	6	6	3	7	24
4	Quindio	15	6	5	4	1	23
5	Real Cartagena	15	5	6	4	8	21
6	Popayan	15	6	3	6	0	21
7	Envigado	15	4	8	3	4	20
8	Union Magdalena	15	5	5	5	0	20
9	Real Santander	15	4	8	3	-3	20
10	Bogota FC	15	4	6	5	-3	18
11	Depor FC	15	5	3	7	-5	18
12	Patriotas	15	5	3	7	-6	18
13	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-3	17
14	Internacional Palmira	15	4	4	7	-6	16
15	Barranquilla	15	3	5	7	-4	14
16	Leones FC	15	3	5	7	-10	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.