Unión Molinense vs San Javier Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Unión Molinense and 1.48 for San Javier, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Unión Molinense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Unión Molinense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Unión Molinense and 1.48 for San Javier, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 64% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Unión Molinense win41%

Draw24%

San Javier win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–18.7%
1–28.1%
1–07.4%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Unión Molinense

San Javier

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Algar · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Garres · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCAM Murcia II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SFC Minerva · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Molinense · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	San Javier	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	2	3	1	1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	2	3	1	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	2	2	2	6	8
7	Águilas II	6	1	5	0	2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Algar	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.