· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Union Namur vs Stockay-Warfusée Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Union Namur and 2.08 for Stockay-Warfusée, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Stockay-Warfusée the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stockay-Warfusée win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Namur home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stockay-Warfusée away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Union Namur
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Braine · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockay-Warfusée · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Verviers · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Richelle United · 0-2 (L)
Stockay-Warfusée
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostiches · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jette · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Namur · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Braine · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Acren-Lessines · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 0-3 Stockay-Warfusée (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-03-22T14:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 2-3 Stockay-Warfusée (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-11-23T13:30:00.000Z · Union Namur 4-0 Stockay-Warfusée (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 0-1 Stockay-Warfusée (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-02-02T13:30:00.000Z · Union Namur 1-0 Stockay-Warfusée (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 1-5 Stockay-Warfusée (First Amateur Division)
- 2023-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 3-0 Stockay-Warfusée (Second Amateur Division - ACFF)
- 2022-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 1-0 Stockay-Warfusée (Second Amateur Division - ACFF)
- 2020-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 1-2 Stockay-Warfusée (Second Amateur Division - ACFF)
- 2019-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · Union Namur 0-3 Stockay-Warfusée (Second Amateur Division - ACFF)
Second Amateur Division - ACFF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jette | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Stade Mouscronnois | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Braine | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Ganshoren | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | AS Eupen II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | RUS Binche | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Stade Verviers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Richelle United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Huy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Acren-Lessines | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | La Calamine | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ostiches | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Stockay-Warfusée | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Entité Manageoise | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Namur | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Aywaille | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stockay-Warfusée win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.