Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Union Omaha and 0.90 for Sarasota Paradise, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Union Omaha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Omaha win

65.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sarasota Paradise away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Omaha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Union Omaha and 0.90 for Sarasota Paradise, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Union Omaha win66%

Draw20%

Sarasota Paradise win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

2–011.0%
1–010.3%
2–19.9%
1–19.3%
3–07.8%

Recent form

Union Omaha

Sarasota Paradise

2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Fort Wayne · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Richmond Kickers · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte Independence · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Hearts of Pine · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Greenville Triumph · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL League One table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	15	7	7	23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	14	9	7	15	51
5	Boise	29	14	7	8	6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	14	5	8	5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	7	46
8	Fort Wayne	28	10	9	9	6	39
9	Naples	29	11	4	14	-10	37
10	Corpus Christi	28	9	9	10	-8	36
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	-4	33
13	Alta	29	8	8	13	-7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	-10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	7	4	17	-20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	6	5	17	-22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	-30	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Omaha win, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.