Forstenlechner Arena Perg · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Union Perg vs Friedburg / Pöndorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Union Perg and 1.55 for Friedburg / Pöndorf, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Union Perg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Perg win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Friedburg / Pöndorf away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Perg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Union Perg and 1.55 for Friedburg / Pöndorf, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Union Perg
Friedburg / Pöndorf
- 2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bad Ischl · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pregarten · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oedt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Perg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Martin i.M. · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Landesliga - Oberosterreich table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 59 |
| 2 | Vortuna Bad Leonfelden | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 54 |
| 3 | Bad Schallerbach | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 50 |
| 4 | Union Perg | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 49 |
| 5 | Weißkirchen / Allhaming | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Friedburg / Pöndorf | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 44 |
| 7 | Union Edelweiß | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 44 |
| 8 | Mondsee | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 42 |
| 9 | Ostermiething | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Union Vöcklamarkt | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 | St. Martin i.M. | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 38 |
| 12 | Oedt | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 32 |
| 13 | Bad Ischl | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | -34 | 30 |
| 14 | Pregarten | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -21 | 21 |
| 15 | Gschwandt | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -43 | 20 |
| 16 | Grün Weiß Micheldorf | 28 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -30 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Perg win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.