· Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Albert Quévy-Mons Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Union Saint-Gilloise II and 1.55 for Albert Quévy-Mons, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Albert Quévy-Mons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Albert Quévy-Mons win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Saint-Gilloise II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Albert Quévy-Mons away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albert Quévy-Mons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise II and 1.55 for Albert Quévy-Mons, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Union Saint-Gilloise II
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flénu · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs RWDM · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liège II · 1-0 (W)
Albert Quévy-Mons
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flénu · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Londerzeel · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Onhaye · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubize · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Charleroi · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Albert Quévy-Mons win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.