· Analysis updated 18:32 UTC
Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Standard Liège II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Union Saint-Gilloise II and 1.12 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Union Saint-Gilloise II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Saint-Gilloise II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Standard Liège II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Union Saint-Gilloise II
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flénu · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs RWDM · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liège II · 1-0 (W)
Standard Liège II
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Habay-la-Neuve · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1-0 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-04-25T18:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 0-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-11-22T18:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 2-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 2-4 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-03-01T18:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 0-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-11-16T18:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 0-2 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 3-0 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.