· Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Standard Liège II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Union Saint-Gilloise II and 1.23 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Union Saint-Gilloise II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Saint-Gilloise II win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Saint-Gilloise II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Standard Liège II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 51.5% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.1% | 24.5% | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.08 | 45.4% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.8% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.6% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 47.0% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.0% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 72.5% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Union Saint-Gilloise II
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flénu · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs RWDM · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liège II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 1-1 (D)
Standard Liège II
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Habay-la-Neuve · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1-0 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-04-25T18:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 0-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-11-22T18:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 2-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 2-4 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-03-01T18:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 0-1 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-11-16T18:30:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 0-2 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · Union Saint-Gilloise II 3-0 Standard Liège II (First Amateur Division)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Saint-Gilloise II win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.