Estadio Municipal de San Felipe · Analysis updated 02:25 UTC
Union San Felipe vs Deportes Iquique Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Union San Felipe and 1.18 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Deportes Iquique the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union San Felipe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportes Iquique away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Union San Felipe
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-0 (W)
Deportes Iquique
- 2026-10-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T23:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 0-5 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
- 2023-08-13T19:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 1-1 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
- 2023-03-26T15:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 2-1 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
- 2022-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 0-3 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
- 2022-05-21T16:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 2-0 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
- 2021-10-19T23:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 0-1 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
- 2021-07-15T21:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 3-1 Deportes Iquique (Primera B)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | San Marcos de Arica | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.