Union San Felipe vs Recoleta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Union San Felipe and 1.53 for Recoleta, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Recoleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union San Felipe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Recoleta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Recoleta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Union San Felipe and 1.53 for Recoleta, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Union San Felipe win30%

Draw25%

Recoleta win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–110.0%
1–29.1%
1–07.9%
0–27.6%

Recent form

Union San Felipe

2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-0 (W)

Recoleta

2026-09-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	27	13	9	5	16	48
2	San Luis	26	13	8	5	12	47
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	5	46
4	Antofagasta	27	12	8	7	21	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	12	44
6	Recoleta	27	11	8	8	3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	10	9	8	6	39
9	Union Espanola	26	10	6	10	-2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	-8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	7	10	9	5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	-16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	-14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	5	7	14	-28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	4	6	16	-19	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.