Estadio Municipal de San Felipe · Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Union San Felipe vs San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Union San Felipe and 0.98 for San Luis, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives San Luis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.1% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union San Felipe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Luis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 0–116.9%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Union San Felipe
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-0 (W)
San Luis
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Antofagasta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-04T22:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 0-4 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2025-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 1-0 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2025-04-12T00:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 1-2 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2024-07-27T16:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 0-0 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2024-03-11T00:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 1-3 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2023-06-19T00:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 2-1 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2023-04-09T19:00:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 1-1 San Luis (Copa Chile)
- 2023-02-14T23:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 1-3 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2022-08-24T00:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 2-2 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2022-04-12T00:30:00.000Z · Union San Felipe 2-0 San Luis (Primera B)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.