· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Unión Santa Fe Res. and 0.80 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Unión Santa Fe Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unión Santa Fe Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unión Santa Fe Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 32% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Unión Santa Fe Res. and 0.80 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–016.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Unión Santa Fe Res.
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigre Res. · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.