· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Unión Santa Fe Res. and 0.84 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Unión Santa Fe Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Unión Santa Fe Res. win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unión Santa Fe Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unión Santa Fe Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 28% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Unión Santa Fe Res. and 0.84 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Unión Santa Fe Res.
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigre Res. · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unión Santa Fe Res. win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.