Estadio 15 de Abril · Referee D. Herrera · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Union Santa Fe and 0.92 for Defensa Y Justicia, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Union Santa Fe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Santa Fe home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensa Y Justicia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 57.4% vs market 50.0%, edge +7.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 57.4% | 1.74 | +7.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 70.3% | 70.9% | 1.41 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.2% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.6% | 3.62 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.8% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.1% | 3.44 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 73.0% | 72.4% | 1.38 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 42.6% | 2.35 | -7.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Union Santa Fe
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 4-1 (W)
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T20:45:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-10-21T22:15:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 3-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-04-14T22:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-12-15T20:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-10T22:15:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-07-28T19:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 2-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-05-02T22:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-11-18T20:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 2-3 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.