Estadio 15 de Abril · Referee P. Echavarria · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Union Santa Fe and 0.89 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Union Santa Fe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Santa Fe win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union Santa Fe home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 76.0% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.77 | 52.4% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 21.2% | 22.2% | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 51.0% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 77.5% | 77.8% | 1.29 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.93 | 48.2% | 48.2% | 2.07 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.4% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.6% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.8% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.95 | 24.0% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Union Santa Fe
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 4-1 (W)
Sarmiento Junin
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 4-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-02-26T20:15:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 3-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-09-29T22:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-02T20:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 2-1 Sarmiento Junin (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-0 Sarmiento Junin (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-05-15T18:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-02-27T20:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 4-3 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-03-27T00:15:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Santa Fe win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.