Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.02 for Velez Sarsfield, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Union Santa Fe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Union Santa Fe home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velez Sarsfield away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Union Santa Fe win35%

Draw30%

Velez Sarsfield win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–113.5%
1–013.3%
0–113.1%
0–012.9%
2–17.0%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 58.9% vs market 47.3%, edge +11.6 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.95	47.3%	58.9%	1.70	+11.6
Double chance	Home/Away	1.36	68.6%	69.6%	1.44	+1.0
Match result	Home	2.62	34.8%	35.1%	2.85	+0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.44	64.8%	64.9%	1.54	+0.1
Match result	Draw	3.00	30.4%	30.4%	3.29	0.0
Match result	Away	2.62	34.8%	34.5%	2.90	-0.3
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.40	66.6%	65.5%	1.53	-1.1
Both teams to score	Yes	1.75	52.7%	41.1%	2.43	-11.6

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Union Santa Fe

2026-11-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-3 (L)

Velez Sarsfield

2026-10-31T22:15:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-27T21:45:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 2-2 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-12-07T22:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-0 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2023-07-24T19:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-0 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-08-06T21:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 2-1 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-4 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-04-04T21:30:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 1-4 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2020-03-09T22:00:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-3 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2018-11-25T20:10:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 0-2 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2017-11-07T00:05:00.000Z · Union Santa Fe 2-0 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	15	10	3	2	11	33
2	Boca Juniors	15	8	6	1	9	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	15	7	7	1	10	28
4	Defensa Y Justicia	15	8	4	3	7	28
5	Lanus	15	7	4	4	7	25
6	Newells Old Boys	15	5	7	3	3	22
7	Gimnasia M.	15	6	3	6	1	21
8	Independiente	15	5	5	5	-2	20
9	San Lorenzo	15	5	4	6	-5	19
10	Union Santa Fe	15	5	3	7	-2	18
11	Platense	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Estudiantes L.P.	15	4	3	8	-1	15
13	Talleres Cordoba	15	3	3	9	-6	12
14	Deportivo Riestra	15	2	6	7	-7	12
15	Central Cordoba de Santiago	15	2	4	9	-14	10
1	Rosario Central	15	9	4	2	12	31
2	Argentinos JRS	15	9	4	2	8	31
3	Gimnasia L.P.	16	9	4	3	5	31
4	River Plate	16	8	2	6	7	26
5	Barracas Central	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Belgrano Cordoba	16	6	5	5	2	23
7	Independ. Rivadavia	15	6	4	5	-3	22
8	Sarmiento Junin	15	6	3	6	0	21
9	Huracan	15	5	4	6	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	15	4	5	6	-1	17
11	Tigre	15	4	4	7	-1	16
12	Racing Club	16	4	3	9	-8	15
13	Banfield	15	3	5	7	-7	14
14	Aldosivi	16	3	2	11	-10	11
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	15	2	3	10	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.