Stade Joseph Marien · Analysis updated 02:21 UTC
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.27 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Union St. Gilloise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Union St. Gilloise to Win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–16.4%
Why the model likes this
Union St. Gilloise home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union St. Gilloise to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.27 for Anderlecht, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Union St. Gilloise
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 1-1 (D)
Anderlecht
- 2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Antwerp | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Charleroi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Genk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Standard Liege | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.