Stade Joseph Marien · Referee Nathan Verboomen, Belgium · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.48 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Union St. Gilloise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union St. Gilloise win
80.2% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Union St. Gilloise home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OH Leuven away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.2%
- 1–013.5%
- 3–013.0%
- 4–07.8%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Union St. Gilloise
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Nijlen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Antwerp · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 3-0 (W)
OH Leuven
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 0-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-08-03T16:30:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 5-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 1-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-03-02T17:15:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 2-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 5-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-01-21T19:45:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 1-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 3-0 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Union St. Gilloise 4-1 OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union St. Gilloise win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.