· Analysis updated 14:55 UTC
Unión Sur Yaiza vs Panadería Pulido Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Unión Sur Yaiza and 1.80 for Panadería Pulido, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Panadería Pulido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unión Sur Yaiza home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panadería Pulido away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Unión Sur Yaiza
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Laguna de Duero · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Villaverde Norte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Unión de Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Los Llanos · 0-1 (L)
Panadería Pulido
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Playas Sotavento · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mensajero · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs San Miguel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laguna de Duero · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Anaza · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 0-0 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
- 2026-01-10T12:00:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 0-3 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
- 2024-06-08T16:00:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 3-0 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2024-06-02T09:45:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 1-1 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2024-02-10T17:30:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 1-0 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
- 2023-09-23T11:00:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 1-1 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
- 2023-03-04T17:30:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 1-1 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
- 2022-10-29T17:00:00.000Z · Unión Sur Yaiza 0-2 Panadería Pulido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Panadería Pulido | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | San Miguel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Tenerife C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Marino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Las Palmas III | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Mensajero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Los Llanos | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | San Bartolomé | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Anaza | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Villa Santa Brígida | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Estrella | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Playas Sotavento | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Laguna de Duero | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Villaverde Norte | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.