· Analysis updated 12:31 UTC
Unionistas de Salamanca vs Alcorcon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 1.28 for Alcorcon, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Alcorcon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alcorcon win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unionistas de Salamanca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcorcon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcorcon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 1.28 for Alcorcon, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Unionistas de Salamanca
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
Alcorcon
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-16T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alcorcon win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.