Reina Sofia · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Unionistas de Salamanca vs Athletic Club II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 2.08 for Athletic Club II, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Athletic Club II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Athletic Club II win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unionistas de Salamanca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.5%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Unionistas de Salamanca
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Ourense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Avilés · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 2-4 (L)
Athletic Club II
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T16:15:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-1 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 0-0 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 3-2 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-03-06T11:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 0-1 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2019-11-16T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-4 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club II win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.