Reina Sofia · Analysis updated 12:32 UTC
Unionistas de Salamanca vs Racing Ferrol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Unionistas de Salamanca and 0.90 for Racing Ferrol, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Unionistas de Salamanca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unionistas de Salamanca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Ferrol away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Unionistas de Salamanca
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
Racing Ferrol
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Barakaldo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T16:30:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 3-2 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-2 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-05-07T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-1 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-11-06T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-05-07T17:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 0-1 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-03-28T10:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-1 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-01-10T16:00:00.000Z · Unionistas de Salamanca 1-0 Racing Ferrol (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Athletic Club II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Zamora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Cacereño | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Avilés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Mirandes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.