· Analysis updated 23:25 UTC
Unirea Braniştea vs Sporting Lieşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Unirea Braniştea and 1.91 for Sporting Lieşti, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives Unirea Braniştea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Unirea Braniştea win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unirea Braniştea home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unirea Braniştea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 19% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Unirea Braniştea and 1.91 for Sporting Lieşti, a combined 4.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.0%
- 1–15.9%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Unirea Braniştea
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Axiopolis · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agigea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portul Constanta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Agricola Borcea · 0-1 (L)
Sporting Lieşti
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 5-4 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unirea Braniştea win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.