· Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
Unirea Dej vs Sânmartin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Unirea Dej and 1.97 for Sânmartin, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sânmartin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sânmartin win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unirea Dej home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sânmartin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sânmartin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 16% / 21% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Unirea Dej and 1.97 for Sânmartin, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.4%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.4%
Recent form
Unirea Dej
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Transilvania Sport Academy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Cluj · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Minaur Baia Mare · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Recea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SCM Zalău · 0-2 (L)
Sânmartin
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SCM Zalău · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bihorul Beiuş · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Minaur Baia Mare · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sănătatea Cluj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crişul Sântandrei · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Unirea Dej 0-1 Sânmartin (Liga III - Serie 8)
- 2026-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · Unirea Dej 3-3 Sânmartin (Liga III - Serie 8)
- 2025-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · Unirea Dej 1-2 Sânmartin (Liga III - Serie 8)
Liga III - Serie 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 23 |
| 2 | Sănătatea Cluj | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Crişul Sântandrei | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Academica Recea | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | SCM Zalău | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sânmartin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bihorul Beiuş | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Viitorul Cluj | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Unirea Tășnad | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 11 | Unirea Dej | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sânmartin win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.