· Analysis updated 12:29 UTC
Unirea Sântana vs Metalurgistul Cugir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Unirea Sântana and 1.53 for Metalurgistul Cugir, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Unirea Sântana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Unirea Sântana win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unirea Sântana home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Metalurgistul Cugir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unirea Sântana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Unirea Sântana and 1.53 for Metalurgistul Cugir, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Unirea Sântana
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetate Deva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Poli Timisoara 2 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Arad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nera Bogodinţi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Alba Iulia · 0-1 (L)
Metalurgistul Cugir
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Alba Iulia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Pecica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Poli Timisoara 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Arad · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-13T12:00:00.000Z · Unirea Sântana 3-2 Metalurgistul Cugir (Liga III - Serie 7)
- 2025-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Unirea Sântana 2-1 Metalurgistul Cugir (Liga III - Serie 7)
Liga III - Serie 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 23 |
| 2 | Timişul Şag | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Cetate Deva | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | CIL Blaj | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Viitorul Arad | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Unirea Sântana | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Progresul Pecica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Poli Timisoara 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Universitatea Alba Iulia | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 12 | Nera Bogodinţi | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unirea Sântana win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.