King Abdullah Sports City · Referee M. A. Al Hatmi Q. · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
United Arab Emirates vs Yemen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for United Arab Emirates and 1.02 for Yemen, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives United Arab Emirates the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
United Arab Emirates win
71.6% probability
Expected goals
2.62 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
United Arab Emirates home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Yemen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates United Arab Emirates to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.62 goals for United Arab Emirates and 1.02 for Yemen, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.9%
- 1–17.0%
Recent form
United Arab Emirates
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 4-0 (W)
Yemen
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T15:55:00.000Z · A vs United Arab Emirates · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuwait · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gulf Cup of Nations table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Oman | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Iraq | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kuwait | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | United Arab Emirates | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Yemen | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bahrain | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is United Arab Emirates win, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.