Sodertalje Fotbollsarena · Referee Fidan Hasani, Sweden · Analysis updated 22:16 UTC
United Nordic vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for United Nordic and 1.60 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Norrkoping win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
United Nordic home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Norrkoping away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Norrkoping to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 24% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for United Nordic and 1.60 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
United Nordic
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostersunds FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Norrby IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oddevold · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orebro SK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Landskrona BoIS · 1-4 (L)
IFK Norrkoping
- 2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orebro SK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oddevold · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superettan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 59 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Ostersunds FK | 28 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 48 |
| 4 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 42 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -6 | 39 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 38 |
| 10 | Ljungskile SK | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 32 |
| 12 | Helsingborg | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -6 | 27 |
| 14 | IK brage | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | -12 | 26 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 28 | 6 | 1 | 21 | -46 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.