Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto · Analysis updated 20:12 UTC
United States U20 W vs Costa Rica U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for United States U20 W and 1.03 for Costa Rica U20 W, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives United States U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
United States U20 W win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
United States U20 W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Costa Rica U20 W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates United States U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for United States U20 W and 1.03 for Costa Rica U20 W, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
United States U20 W
- 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs England U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs France U23 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs France U23 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Brazil U20 W · 1-1 (D)
Costa Rica U20 W
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugal U20 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR U20 W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U20 W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-16T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Canada U20 W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-13T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Canada U20 W · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is United States U20 W win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.