Stadion Miejski w Łodzi · Referee C. Reibelt · Analysis updated 00:49 UTC
United States U20 W vs Italy U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for United States U20 W and 1.64 for Italy U20 W, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives United States U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
United States U20 W win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
United States U20 W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates United States U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for United States U20 W and 1.64 for Italy U20 W, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
United States U20 W
- 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs England U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs France U23 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs France U23 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Brazil U20 W · 1-1 (D)
Italy U20 W
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea Republic U20 W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs China PR U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U20 W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U20 - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Canada U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tanzania U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | France U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Korea Republic U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ghana U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Italy U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan U20 W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | New Zealand U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | Korea DPR U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Portugal U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 |
| 2 | Nigeria U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | New Caledonia U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | 0 |
| 1 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 2 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is United States U20 W win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.