United vs Calcutta Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for United and 0.72 for Calcutta Police, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

United win

55.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

United home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for United and 0.72 for Calcutta Police, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

United win55%

Draw27%

Calcutta Police win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.4%
2–012.1%
1–111.8%
0–011.1%
2–18.7%

Recent form

United

2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Bhawanipore · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohun Bagan · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs East Bengal · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Wari · 8-0 (W)
2026-08-31T09:30:00.000Z · H vs NA Suruchi Sangha · 5-1 (W)

Calcutta Police

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Calcutta Premier Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	East Bengal	14	9	5	0	27	32
2	Bhawanipore	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Mohun Bagan	14	9	3	2	25	30
4	Mohammedan	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	United	14	6	5	3	15	23
6	Coal India	14	6	4	4	-3	22
7	Peerless	11	6	2	3	11	20
8	Aryan	11	5	4	2	12	19
9	Calcutta Customs	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Calcutta Police	11	5	3	3	2	18
11	Police	11	4	5	2	2	17
12	United Kolkata	11	4	4	3	6	16
13	Measurers	11	3	6	2	4	15
14	Kalighat	11	4	2	5	5	14
15	Railway	11	4	2	5	0	14
16	Kidderpore	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	BSS Sporting	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Patha Chakra	11	3	1	7	-20	10
19	NA Suruchi Sangha	11	2	3	6	-9	9
20	Rainbow	11	2	1	8	-18	7
21	Wari	11	1	4	6	-19	7
22	George Telegraph	11	2	1	8	-26	7
23	Kalighat Club	11	0	3	8	-17	3
24	Bidhannagar	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is United win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.