· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
United vs East Bengal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for United and 1.26 for East Bengal, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives East Bengal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
United home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
East Bengal away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Bengal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 31% / 28% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for United and 1.26 for East Bengal, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
United
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Bhawanipore · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohun Bagan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs East Bengal · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Wari · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T09:30:00.000Z · H vs NA Suruchi Sangha · 5-1 (W)
East Bengal
- 2026-08-30T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Calcutta Customs · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Kidderpore · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalighat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Bhawanipore · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs BSS Sporting · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Calcutta Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Bengal | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Bhawanipore | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Mohun Bagan | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 30 |
| 4 | Mohammedan | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | United | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 23 |
| 6 | Coal India | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 22 |
| 7 | Peerless | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 8 | Aryan | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 9 | Calcutta Customs | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Calcutta Police | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Police | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | United Kolkata | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Measurers | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 14 | Kalighat | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 15 | Railway | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 16 | Kidderpore | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 17 | BSS Sporting | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Patha Chakra | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 10 |
| 19 | NA Suruchi Sangha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Rainbow | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 7 |
| 21 | Wari | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | George Telegraph | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -26 | 7 |
| 23 | Kalighat Club | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 24 | Bidhannagar | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -26 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.