· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Univer Comrat vs Spartanii Selemet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.46 expected goals for Univer Comrat and 1.49 for Spartanii Selemet, a combined total of 5.95. That distribution gives Univer Comrat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Univer Comrat win
84.4% probability
Expected goals
4.46 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Univer Comrat home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartanii Selemet away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Univer Comrat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 9% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.46 goals for Univer Comrat and 1.49 for Spartanii Selemet, a combined 5.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.4%
- 3–15.7%
- 5–15.7%
- 4–24.8%
- 4–04.3%
Recent form
Univer Comrat
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FCM Ungheni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartanii Selemet · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartanii Selemet · 6-1 (W)
Spartanii Selemet
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Cutezători · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FCM Ungheni · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Univer Comrat · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vulturii Cutezători | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Iskra | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | FC National Ialoveni | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Univer Comrat | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Făleşti | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | Zimbru II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Univer Comrat win, at 84.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.