· Analysis updated 17:40 UTC
Universidad Catolica vs LDU de Quito Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Universidad Catolica and 1.14 for LDU de Quito, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Universidad Catolica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universidad Catolica home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
LDU de Quito away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universidad Catolica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Universidad Catolica and 1.14 for LDU de Quito, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Universidad Catolica
- 2026-10-23T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente del Valle · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 2-1 (W)
LDU de Quito
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Aucas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad Catolica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.