Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos · Referee Franco Esteban Jimenez Lazo · Analysis updated 20:59 UTC
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.94 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Universidad de Chile the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Universidad de Chile win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universidad de Chile home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Everton de Vina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universidad de Chile to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.94 for Everton de Vina, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Universidad de Chile
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 1-0 (W)
Everton de Vina
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universidad de Chile win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.