Universidad de Chile vs Nublense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.71 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Universidad de Chile the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Universidad de Chile win

66.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.94 – 0.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Universidad de Chile home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nublense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universidad de Chile to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.71 for Nublense, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Universidad de Chile win66%

Draw21%

Nublense win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.6%
2–013.2%
1–19.7%
2–19.5%
3–08.6%

Recent form

Universidad de Chile

2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 1-0 (W)

Nublense

2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	23	55
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	24	13	3	8	15	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	3	38
6	Nublense	25	9	8	8	-8	35
7	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
8	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	2	32
10	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
11	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Universidad de Chile win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.