Estadio Ester Roa · Referee J. Cabero · Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.60 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives D. La Serena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
D. La Serena win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universidad de Concepcion home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
D. La Serena away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates D. La Serena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.60 for D. La Serena, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Universidad de Concepcion
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-2 (L)
D. La Serena
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobresal · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is D. La Serena win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.