Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.20 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Universidad de Concepcion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Universidad de Concepcion home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nublense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Universidad de Concepcion win36%

Draw28%

Nublense win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–010.9%
0–110.9%
0–09.1%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Universidad de Concepcion

2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-2 (L)

Nublense

2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-01T19:00:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 0-1 Nublense (Copa Chile)
2026-06-25T23:30:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 2-4 Nublense (Copa Chile)
2026-06-06T22:00:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 1-2 Nublense (Copa De La Liga)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 2-2 Nublense (Primera División)
2026-03-30T23:30:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 0-2 Nublense (Copa De La Liga)
2025-04-05T22:00:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 0-2 Nublense (Copa Chile)
2025-01-31T22:00:00.000Z · Universidad de Concepcion 2-3 Nublense (Copa Chile)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	23	55
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	24	13	3	8	15	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	3	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	9	37
7	Nublense	25	9	8	8	-8	35
8	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	2	32
10	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
11	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	25	6	5	14	-23	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.