Estadio Ester Roa · Referee D. Flores · Analysis updated 20:05 UTC
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.73 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Universidad de Chile the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universidad de Chile win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universidad de Concepcion home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universidad de Chile away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universidad de Chile to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.73 for Universidad de Chile, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.0% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 4.65 | 19.8% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.90 | 47.9% | 48.9% | 2.04 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.10 | 44.0% | 44.7% | 2.24 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 1.68 | 54.7% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 79.0% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.0% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.1% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.10 | 30.0% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.5% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Universidad de Concepcion
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-2 (L)
Universidad de Chile
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universidad de Chile win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.