Estadio Panamericano · Analysis updated 01:20 UTC
Universidad O&M vs Atlántico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Universidad O&M and 0.78 for Atlántico, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Universidad O&M the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universidad O&M win
78.2% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universidad O&M home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlántico away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 3–010.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Universidad O&M
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarabacoa · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vega Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
Atlántico
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vega Real · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-14T19:30:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 0-2 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 1-2 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-02-27T20:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 2-1 Atlántico (Copa LDF)
- 2024-08-04T20:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 1-1 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2024-07-13T20:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 0-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2024-06-15T20:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 3-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2024-05-05T22:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 0-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2024-04-03T20:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 2-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2023-08-20T22:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 1-3 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2023-07-21T23:00:00.000Z · Universidad O&M 1-2 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universidad O&M win, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.