Estadio Panamericano · Analysis updated 11:53 UTC
Universidad O&M vs Salcedo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Universidad O&M and 1.40 for Salcedo, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Salcedo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universidad O&M home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salcedo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salcedo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Universidad O&M and 1.40 for Salcedo, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Universidad O&M
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarabacoa · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vega Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
Salcedo
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vega Real · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 32 |
| 2 | Cibao | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.