· Referee I. N. Mendez Chavez · Analysis updated 08:47 UTC
Universitario de Vinto vs Nacional Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Universitario de Vinto and 1.73 for Nacional Potosí, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Nacional Potosí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional Potosí win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitario de Vinto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Potosí away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Universitario de Vinto
- 2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)
Nacional Potosí
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T21:15:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2025-11-23T21:15:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 2-2 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2025-10-22T22:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 4-3 Nacional Potosí (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-0 Nacional Potosí (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-5 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2025-03-05T00:30:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-1 Nacional Potosí (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
- 2025-02-28T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 3-0 Nacional Potosí (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2025-02-25T22:30:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-2 Nacional Potosí (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2024-12-20T21:30:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 2-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2024-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 51 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 37 |
| 6 | Aurora | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 20 |
| 15 | ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -18 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -24 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Potosí win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.