Estadio Hipolito Lazarte · Referee J. Gutierrez · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Universitario de Vinto and 1.38 for Real Oruro, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Universitario de Vinto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universitario de Vinto win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitario de Vinto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Oruro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–06.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Universitario de Vinto
- 2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)
Real Oruro
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Potosí · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-3 Real Oruro (Primera División)
- 2026-07-08T22:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-4 Real Oruro (Primera División)
- 2026-03-10T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-1 Real Oruro (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-03-07T00:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 3-4 Real Oruro (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-29T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-3 Real Oruro (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-2 Real Oruro (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 2-2 Real Oruro (Primera División)
- 2025-05-05T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-2 Real Oruro (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 20 |
| 15 | ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -18 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universitario de Vinto win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.