· Referee D. Rodriguez · Analysis updated 00:07 UTC
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Tomayapo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Universitario de Vinto and 1.43 for Real Tomayapo, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Universitario de Vinto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universitario de Vinto win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitario de Vinto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Tomayapo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Universitario de Vinto
- 2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)
Real Tomayapo
- 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Always Ready · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2025-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2025-04-19T00:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2024-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 2-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2024-05-22T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2023-11-18T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2023-05-20T00:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 2-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2022-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2022-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 0-4 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2022-04-15T22:00:00.000Z · Universitario de Vinto 1-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 51 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 20 |
| 15 | ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -18 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universitario de Vinto win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.