Cluj Arena · Referee Szabolcs Kovacs, Romania · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Universitatea Cluj vs Oţelul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj and 1.45 for Oţelul, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Universitatea Cluj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitatea Cluj home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oţelul away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Universitatea Cluj
- 2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oţelul · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-0 (W)
Oţelul
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 3-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2026-02-27T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 4-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2026-02-11T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-0 Oţelul (Cupa României)
- 2025-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-1 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2025-02-21T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2024-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2024-05-19T11:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2024-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 0-1 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2024-04-18T17:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-2 Oţelul (Cupa României)
- 2023-12-17T13:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 0-1 Oţelul (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.