Cluj Arena · Analysis updated 06:58 UTC
Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj and 1.37 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Universitatea Cluj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universitatea Cluj win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitatea Cluj home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petrolul Ploiesti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Universitatea Cluj
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arges Pitesti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 2-0 (W)
Petrolul Ploiesti
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chindia Targoviste · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T08:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Afumati · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Cupa României)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-3 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2025-12-14T13:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2025-08-09T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-12-14T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 4-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 0-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-04-13T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-2 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-11-11T12:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 0-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-07-16T15:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 1-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-04-16T15:15:00.000Z · Universitatea Cluj 2-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universitatea Cluj win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.