Stadionul Ion Oblemenco · Referee Szabolcs Kovacs, Romania · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.53 for Arges Pitesti, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Universitatea Craiova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Universitatea Craiova win
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitatea Craiova home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arges Pitesti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universitatea Craiova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 21% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.53 for Arges Pitesti, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.2%
- 2–015.7%
- 3–09.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–19.2%
Recent form
Universitatea Craiova
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Cluj · 4-0 (W)
Arges Pitesti
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universitatea Craiova win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.