Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.12 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Universitatea Craiova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Universitatea Craiova win

49.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Universitatea Craiova home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universitatea Craiova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.12 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Universitatea Craiova win50%

Draw24%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.3%
2–19.6%
2–08.5%
0–17.0%

Recent form

Universitatea Craiova

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanta · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 4-0 (W)

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Universitatea Craiova win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.