Stadionul Ion Oblemenco · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Universitatea Craiova vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.63 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Universitatea Craiova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Universitatea Craiova win
75.2% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitatea Craiova home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.2%
- 1–012.3%
- 3–010.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Universitatea Craiova
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Cluj · 4-0 (W)
Farul Constanta
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-01T15:15:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-4 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2025-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2025-03-01T17:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-10-28T19:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 2-3 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-05-13T17:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 3-3 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-04-12T17:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-01-21T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2023-12-05T17:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 4-0 Farul Constanta (Cupa României)
- 2023-08-27T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 0-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2023-05-13T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Universitatea Craiova win, at 75.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.