Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.72 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Universitatea Craiova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Universitatea Craiova win

62.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Universitatea Craiova home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Universitatea Craiova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.72 for Getafe, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Universitatea Craiova win62%

Draw23%

Getafe win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.7%
2–013.0%
1–110.6%
2–19.3%
0–08.3%

Recent form

Universitatea Craiova

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Cluj · 4-0 (W)

Getafe

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Universitatea Craiova win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.