Stadionul Ion Oblemenco · Referee Marian Barbu, Romania · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.50 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Universitatea Craiova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Universitatea Craiova home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Petrolul Ploiesti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Universitatea Craiova
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Cluj · 4-0 (W)
Petrolul Ploiesti
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 4-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2026-01-19T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 4-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2025-12-04T19:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 4-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Cupa României)
- 2025-08-24T15:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-12-07T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-12-04T18:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Cupa României)
- 2024-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 0-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2024-02-29T16:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 3-2 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-3 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
- 2023-03-05T13:30:00.000Z · Universitatea Craiova 1-0 Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.